Analytics predicts Super Bowl winner between Chiefs and Eagles
Photo by Maximilian Haupt/picture alliance via Getty Images The big game is Sunday and we already know who wins because FTN’s DVOA says so. Kansas City or Philadelphia? We are so close to crowning a champion in the NFL which means we are also so close to not having the highest level of professional football to watch until September. The joy and the agony of those two things cannot be denied. The great thing about the NFL is that it is a year-round sport with the NFL combine at the end of this month, then NFL free agency in March and the NFL draft in April. No games but a lot of changes will happen between the raising of the Lombardi Trophy to end this year and Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season. The rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles could be a fascinating chess match. While some wish there wasn’t a new matchup on the NFL’s grandest stage of all, the football on the field should be impressive and, perhaps, we will get another game to join the list of Super Bowls we wished we had attended live. Watching from home, not only should Chiefs vs Eagles be an exciting matchup but we get a chance to watch and judge the Super Bowl commercials that companies created for a hefty price. This week we’ve also broken down the matchup between the two teams based on analytic data. We looked at the potential difficulty Kansas City’s offense could have against Philadelphia’s defense as well as the more evenly matched Eagles offense versus the Chiefs defense. As we have the last couple of postseasons, FTN’s DVOA has helped guide our analytics prediction pieces. DVOA is a metric that breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better. In this year’s playoffs, DVOA has only batted .500 in predicting the results of each playoff round. For the divisional round, we noted that analytics cannot take into account injuries that have decimated the Detroit Lions on the defensive side of the ball. While that wasn’t the only reason the top seed in the NFC lost, it played a huge factor and cannot be accounted for in the data. Data also can’t account for the playoff pedigree of Kansas City nor the plays held back for just the right time by head coach Andy Reid. Attempting to predict the results of these games, when the best are playing the best, is difficult. Bettors on FanDuel, and FanDuel themselves, are looking for every morsel of information to help make their predictions. Interestingly, the two teams that earned the top seeds and bye in their conference were not the top overall DVOA team during the regular season. Neither of the top teams in DVOA made the conference championship games. For the second year in a row, the Baltimore Ravens held the top spot with a 41.4% Total DVOA, down from 45.5% last year. The Detroit Lions were second overall at 34.8% while the Kansas City Chiefs are all the way down at eight at 14.7% To be clear, FTN’s DVOA isn’t perfect nor would it claim to predict the winners of certain games. Too many variables that cannot be codified, like weather, injuries, officiating and more, can play a role in a one-game sample. While DVOA has only batted .500 so far in this year’s NFL playoffs, let's take a look at what it says for the Super Bowl with combined regular season and playoff data. Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Overall DVOA: Kansas City 6th vs Philadelphia 3rd Offensive DVOA: Kansas City 7th vs Philadelphia 12th Defensive DVOA: Kansas City 11th vs Philadelphia 1st Edge: Eagles - Much like last year, when the San Francisco 49ers were second in DVOA while the Chiefs were 5th, the data is doubting the Patrick Mahomes-led, two-time champions. As we noted in the separate pieces, there is a bit of a best vs best when Kansas City’s offense faces Philadelphia’s defense but how Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts can control the clock for the Eagles offense versus Chris Jones and the Chiefs defense could decide the outcome. FTN’s DVOA was far from perfect to start the NFL playoffs but the data provides another piece of information as you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your coworkers or make daily fantasy decisions. This weekend, the data suggests the Eagles will stop the Chiefs from three-peating in Super Bowl LIX. We are excited to see the game played on the field and see whether or not DVOA is able to do a better job this week than it did the rest of the playoffs in predicting the game.
The big game is Sunday and we already know who wins because FTN’s DVOA says so. Kansas City or Philadelphia?
We are so close to crowning a champion in the NFL which means we are also so close to not having the highest level of professional football to watch until September. The joy and the agony of those two things cannot be denied.
The great thing about the NFL is that it is a year-round sport with the NFL combine at the end of this month, then NFL free agency in March and the NFL draft in April. No games but a lot of changes will happen between the raising of the Lombardi Trophy to end this year and Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.
The rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles could be a fascinating chess match. While some wish there wasn’t a new matchup on the NFL’s grandest stage of all, the football on the field should be impressive and, perhaps, we will get another game to join the list of Super Bowls we wished we had attended live.
Watching from home, not only should Chiefs vs Eagles be an exciting matchup but we get a chance to watch and judge the Super Bowl commercials that companies created for a hefty price.
This week we’ve also broken down the matchup between the two teams based on analytic data. We looked at the potential difficulty Kansas City’s offense could have against Philadelphia’s defense as well as the more evenly matched Eagles offense versus the Chiefs defense.
As we have the last couple of postseasons, FTN’s DVOA has helped guide our analytics prediction pieces.
DVOA is a metric that breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better.
In this year’s playoffs, DVOA has only batted .500 in predicting the results of each playoff round. For the divisional round, we noted that analytics cannot take into account injuries that have decimated the Detroit Lions on the defensive side of the ball. While that wasn’t the only reason the top seed in the NFC lost, it played a huge factor and cannot be accounted for in the data.
Data also can’t account for the playoff pedigree of Kansas City nor the plays held back for just the right time by head coach Andy Reid.
Attempting to predict the results of these games, when the best are playing the best, is difficult. Bettors on FanDuel, and FanDuel themselves, are looking for every morsel of information to help make their predictions.
Interestingly, the two teams that earned the top seeds and bye in their conference were not the top overall DVOA team during the regular season. Neither of the top teams in DVOA made the conference championship games. For the second year in a row, the Baltimore Ravens held the top spot with a 41.4% Total DVOA, down from 45.5% last year. The Detroit Lions were second overall at 34.8% while the Kansas City Chiefs are all the way down at eight at 14.7%
To be clear, FTN’s DVOA isn’t perfect nor would it claim to predict the winners of certain games. Too many variables that cannot be codified, like weather, injuries, officiating and more, can play a role in a one-game sample.
While DVOA has only batted .500 so far in this year’s NFL playoffs, let's take a look at what it says for the Super Bowl with combined regular season and playoff data.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Overall DVOA: Kansas City 6th vs Philadelphia 3rd
- Offensive DVOA: Kansas City 7th vs Philadelphia 12th
- Defensive DVOA: Kansas City 11th vs Philadelphia 1st
Edge: Eagles - Much like last year, when the San Francisco 49ers were second in DVOA while the Chiefs were 5th, the data is doubting the Patrick Mahomes-led, two-time champions. As we noted in the separate pieces, there is a bit of a best vs best when Kansas City’s offense faces Philadelphia’s defense but how Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts can control the clock for the Eagles offense versus Chris Jones and the Chiefs defense could decide the outcome.
FTN’s DVOA was far from perfect to start the NFL playoffs but the data provides another piece of information as you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your coworkers or make daily fantasy decisions. This weekend, the data suggests the Eagles will stop the Chiefs from three-peating in Super Bowl LIX.
We are excited to see the game played on the field and see whether or not DVOA is able to do a better job this week than it did the rest of the playoffs in predicting the game.
