Our prediction for the 2026 Formula 1 grid

After arguably Formula 1's craziest-ever silly season, attention will soon turn to who the biggest movers of 2026 will be.

Continuing questions around Max Verstappen's Red Bull future means that even though 14 of the 22 spaces are 'taken', there's always the possibility of further change for those already under contract.

Below is a written summary of how The Race F1 Podcast's Edd Straw, Scott Mitchell-Malm and Jon Noble see the market playing out.

You'll need to listen to the full episode below to hear the full discussion and where our panel disagree (including on Verstappen's 2026 plans!).

McLaren

McLaren has its constructors' title-winning duo of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri already under contract for 2026.

The only obstacle is if both Norris and Piastri are in 2025 title contention, will that strain their relationship to the point of no return for team and/or driver/s?

But Norris and Piastri both being in contention is far from guaranteed let alone it leading to any major intra-team fireworks. Piastri still needs to take a step in qualifying to be a title threat and Norris has plenty to prove after the dramatic collapse of his own championship challenge in 2024.

And so far McLaren has been able to keep a lid on this line-up, one we expect it to maintain into the first year of F1's new era.

Our prediction = Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri

Ferrari

Even if Lewis Hamilton is soundly beaten by Charles Leclerc during their first year at Ferrari together, it's difficult to imagine why Hamilton wouldn't continue into 2026 where a brand new set of regulations will give him another chance to impress.

Like McLaren, Ferrari has its 2026 line-up under contract and there's no reason to think that will change.

Our prediction = Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton

Red Bull

This is the key - will Verstappen remain with Red Bull for 2026 or look for a move to Mercedes or Aston Martin?

Verstappen has a Red Bull contract until the end of 2028 but there have been rumours of an early exit ever since Red Bull's intra-team crisis at the start of 2024 and through its performance decline on-track during last year.

How Verstappen views the progress of Red Bull's 2026 engine programme will also likely be a big determining factor in whether he sticks around for next year.

Then there's the seemingly never-ending question of who will be alongside him in the second seat.

Liam Lawson has the advantage of incumbency and a lack of other candidates. If he can do a solid enough job in 2025 then our panel believes he's the most likely Verstappen partner for 2026.

While Mitchell-Malm predicts Verstappen will depart before 2026, Straw and Noble believing he'll stay means we're predicting continuity for Red Bull for '26.

Our prediction = Max Verstappen and Liam Lawson

Mercedes

Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff openly courting Verstappen's services during 2024 raised the question of 'if Verstappen arrives in 2026 who makes way?'

Will it be its new team leader George Russell who outperformed its departing giant Hamilton last year or Kimi Antonelli, a driver Mercedes believes is the most exciting F1 rookie since Verstappen?

Russell is potentially the most powerful 2026 free agent and while we expect there to be interest, we think Mercedes falls short of capturing Verstappen and instead locks down its Russell-Antonelli line-up for 2026.

Our prediction = George Russell and Kimi Antonelli

Aston Martin

Aston Martin already has Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll under contract for 2026 and you can only imagine someone of Verstappen's calibre would force a change there.

You'll need to listen to the podcast to find out why Mitchell-Malm believes Verstappen will go to Aston (and which driver makes way), but Straw and Noble opting for Alonso-Stroll locks that duo in as our pick.

Our prediction = Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll

Alpine

Will Alpine even have the same driver line-up at the end of 2025 let alone for 2026?

We can't understand why Alpine would make such a big show of acquiring Franco Colapinto on a multi-year deal not to put in a race driver before too long.

Therefore a 2026 line-up of Pierre Gasly plus Colapinto seems the most likely outcome with Jack Doohan dispensed.

Our prediction = Pierre Gasly and Franco Colapinto

Haas

We're expecting good things from Haas's brand-new line-up. You've got race winner Esteban Ocon hungry to rebuild his reputation after a bruising end to his Alpine stint partnered with Ollie Bearman who has already proven his worth across his trio of 2024 cameos.

Haas will have a job managing this potentially combustible line-up but the quality of it should make it a no-brainer to continue into the second year of their contracts.

Our prediction = Esteban Ocon and Ollie Bearman

Racing Bulls

Red Bull has already admitted it may have to let Yuki Tsunoda go if he isn't needed by the senior team in 2025.

No driver has spent five straight seasons with Red Bull's second team let alone a sixth and with Tsunoda's primary backer Honda departing for Aston Martin, the odds of Tsunoda staying for yet another year seem slim.

If he can do a respectable job in his rookie year, Isack Hadjar can expect a second year in the junior team with our trio predicting he'll be joined by Arvid Lindblad.

The 17-year-old is one weekend away from having superlicence points after an impressive Formula Regional Oceania Championship campaign and senior Red Bull figures haven't been this excited by a junior driver since Max Verstappen.

So even if Tsunoda wants to stay - with race seat options elsewhere limited - there might not be any room as Red Bull pivots further back to its junior roots with its second team.

Our prediction = Isack Hadjar and Arvid Lindblad

Williams

Williams's new midfield superteam is locked down for 2026 and short of top team swooping in and buying out either driver, there's no reason to suspect Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz won't be driving for Williams in 2026.

Our prediction = Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz

Audi

Another brand-new duo that should remain the same for 2026 when Sauber will become Audi.

Nico Hulkenberg was one of F1 2024's best midfield operators while there's plenty of reason to suspect Formula 2 champion Gabriel Bortoleto will prove he deserved his shot in F1 this year.

Our prediction = Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto

Cadillac

Cadillac is the biggest unknown of the 2026 F1 grid simply because this version of the entry hasn't given much indication of what kind of driver line-up it wants for 2026.

Under its previous Andretti guise, there was consistent talk of having an American driver and we can't see too much reason why that would have changed.

IndyCar race winner Colton Herta is the most logical fit and our panel believes the 24-year-old will get the nod over fellow American IndyCar drivers like Kyle Kirkwood.

It then makes sense to partner him with an experienced driver - a necessity for the majority of new F1 teams.

Recently ejected race-winning drivers like Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez would be the most likely choices, although you can't rule out Zhou Guanyu (well-backed and managed by team boss Graeme Lowdon) nor Tsunoda.

But at this stage, our trio believes Bottas is the experienced driver Cadillac will hire to partner rookie Herta.

Our prediction = Valtteri Bottas and Colton Herta

Our full 2026 F1 grid prediction

McLaren: Lando Norris/Oscar Piastri
Ferrari: Charles Leclerc/Lewis Hamilton
Red Bull: Max Verstappen/Liam Lawson
Mercedes: George Russell/Kimi Antonelli
Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso/Lance Stroll
Alpine: Pierre Gasly/Franco Colapinto
Haas: Esteban Ocon/Ollie Bearman
Racing Bulls: Isack Hadjar/Arvid Lindblad
Williams: Carlos Sainz/Alex Albon
Audi: Nico Hulkenberg/Gabriel Bortoleto
Cadillac: Valtteri Bottas/Colton Herta