Friday Four: Can Auston Matthews still hit 50 goals this season?

The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week:

• Is 50 still within reach for Matthews?

• Zegras an intriguing trade option

• Is Quick a Hall of Famer?

• Kane becomes shootout King

Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs

There is perhaps no player more excited for the 4 Nations Face-Off than Auston Matthews.

It wasn’t too long ago that there were serious questions about whether or not Matthews would even participate in the tournament. The Toronto Maple Leafs captain has been battling a mystery ailment all season, one that’s forced him out of action multiple times in recent months and saw him fly to Germany for treatment. That made some ponder whether Matthews should sit out the 4 Nations to rest but lately, he’s looked much more like himself on the ice. Then when he was named captain of the American team it was clear, he was playing.

Now that Matthews appears to have moved past the worst of his injury woes, what can we expect from arguably the best goal-scorer on the planet when he’s closer to full strength? Matthews is currently sitting on 20 goals with 28 games left to play in the 2024-25 season. That means 60 goals is out of the question and 40 seems realistic, but what about 50? 

He would need 30 goals in the final 28 games to reach the milestone, which seems like a real challenge for most players. Matthews isn’t most players, though. Just last year the 27-year-old showed what he’s capable of when he’s firing on all cylinders. Matthews scored 51 goals in his first 54 games, becoming the fastest player to hit 50 goals in a season since 1995-96. Breaking that down even further, Matthews notched 28 goals in the first 30 games of the year and then 27 more in another 30-game span in the second half of the campaign. 

That’s not quite 30 in 28 games, but it’s close. What powered Matthews last year on the way to 69 goals were multiple games where he posted huge numbers. He had six hat-tricks in 2023-24, including three in an 11-game stretch. Numbers like that can really accelerate a goal pace and make something like 30 in 28 much more achievable. 

This year, on the other hand, Matthews hasn’t picked up a hat-trick yet and only has a pair of two-goal games. That will have to change down the stretch if he wants to get to 50. Part of that has simply been that he was playing through injury and wasn’t 100 per cent. Matthews has looked better recently, though, enjoying a run in January where he had eight goals in eight games. Unfortunately, he’s followed that up with no goals in his past five, although he’s still generating plenty of shots and scoring chances. He’ll need the dam to burst after the 4 Nations in order to give himself a chance for 50.

In order for Matthews to get there, he’ll have to overcome a few obstacles. The main one is health, as there’s no guarantee the injury he was dealing with won’t creep back up and cost him a few games this season. Matthews said last month he this ailment could bother him throughout the remainder of the campaign. If he misses even another few games, 50 feels like an impossibility.

There’s also the health of his linemates to consider. The Matthews, Matthew Knies and Mitch Marner line has been great, but Knies has missed his fair share of time this season as well. Marner also just missed a game with a minor injury. Matthews has proven to also be productive with Max Domi in the past, but Domi looks nothing like the player he was offensively last season. Should Knies or Marner miss any substantial time from here on out, it could also drastically reduce Matthews’ chances to go on a scoring run. 

With all that said, I don’t think Matthews and Marner have to necessarily play together, but having them both healthy is key. Matthews can produce away from Marner, but if Marner is in the lineup it forces the opposition to split their defensive focus. Matthews will inevitably get some favourable matchups here and there. 

The other thing to consider is how much Matthews is going to play down the stretch. The Leafs played Matthews right up until Game 82 last season during his pursuit of 70 goals. It’s unlikely Toronto will employ the same strategy this year given his lingering injury and they’ll be much more inclined to rest him when they can. Right now, the Leafs don’t have a playoff spot locked up as tightly as they have in years past and they are still jockeying for position, but that could change heading into the final week or two of the season. Don’t expect Matthews to play every single game leading up to the playoffs if the Leafs don’t have anything substantial to play for. 

Matthews is no doubt far more concerned about post-season success than individual milestones at this point in his career. He would probably like to get to 50 goals, but not at the expense of putting himself in the best possible position to succeed in the playoffs. Even if the stars were to align and Matthews got hot down the stretch, he’d have to score at a ridiculous pace to make it happen. However, crazier things have happened, especially for a two-time 60-goal scorer and someone who may have a chance to challenge the all-time goal record someday. 

Doubt Matthews at your own peril.

Trevor Zegras, Anaheim Ducks

With several high-profile players having already changed addresses this season, teams may have to get creative leading up to the trade deadline to fill needs. 

Mikko Rantanen, J.T. Miller, Mikael Granlund, Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost have been dealt but there is some uncertainty around other impactful names potentially being available. Now that the New York Islanders are back in the race, is Brock Nelson still a trade candidate? Can someone pry Ryan O’Reilly out of Nashville? Are the Philadelphia Flyers asking too much for Scott Laughton? Does Yanni Gourde’s injury take him off the market? 

That could make Trevor Zegras an intriguing option to consider. The Anaheim Ducks forward has been the subject of trade rumours in the past, after injuries and inconsistencies have seen Zegras put together a couple of underwhelming seasons. The 23-year-old recorded more than 60 points in each of his first two full campaigns with the Ducks, only to score at around a 39-point pace in the past two injury-filled years.

A former top-10 pick, there’s no denying Zegras has talent but he has yet to find consistency in his game at both ends of the ice. He’s probably best suited on the wing, but Zegras does have the ability to play centre as well and there is no shortage of teams looking for help down the middle right now. Anaheim is probably going to ask for a decent amount in return if they decide to move him based on his potential and the fact that he isn’t a rental. Zegras is under contract for one more after this at a reasonable $5.7 million and then he’d still be an RFA in the summer of 2026.

The key will be putting Zegras in the right spot for him to both develop without too much pressure and help a team in the short term. That probably means more of an offensive role and one where the acquiring team isn’t asking him to do too much heavy lifting in the defensive zone. Perhaps as a scoring winger in the middle six for a team that’s looking to inject some more offence into its lineup heading into the playoffs. Goals are hard to come by in the spring and Zegras’ creativity could be crucial in sparking an offence. 

Where it becomes challenging is trusting Zegras enough to play him in important situations during the post-season. He’s far from polished, so asking him to be on the ice late in a critical playoff game that’s close could be risky. 

With all that said, there are very few deadline acquisitions that come without risk. At least with Zegras, he would have the potential to help a team both now and in the future, if all goes to plan. All it takes is one team to decide that the possible reward is worth the return it would cost to acquire him.

Jonathan Quick, New York Rangers

His role has diminished but his accomplishments haven’t.

Jonathan Quick picked up his 400th career victory on Sunday with a win over the Vegas Golden Knights. The New York Rangers goaltender also became the first American to reach the milestone and the 15th netminder overall to accomplish the feat.

Now 39 and closer to the end of his career than the beginning, it’s worth pondering: Is Quick a Hall of Famer?

He has an impressive resume. Quick has three Stanley Cups to his credit, a Conn Smythe Trophy in 2012 and two William M. Jennings Trophies for allowing the fewest goals in a season. He also has a silver medal at the Olympics and is a three-time All-Star. Of all the goalies ahead of Quick in all-time wins, only Curtis Joseph, Chris Osgood, Marc-Andre Fleury and Sergei Bobrovsky are not in the Hall of Fame. Bobrovsky and Fleury aren’t in because they’re still active, but both figure to get in at some point when they retire.

Quick currently sits 23 wins behind Tony Esposito on the all-time list and if he finishes out this year and plays one more, he has a decent chance to pass Esposito, Glenn Hall, Grant Fuhr and Osgood to close in on the top-10. That’s some impressive company.

If you wanted to make an argument against Quick, he never won the Vezina Trophy as the league’s best goalie and he played the entirety of his career when the shootout was implemented. That means his win totals are a tad inflated, like a few others on the all-time wins list, because there are no more ties. Someone like Terry Sawchuk, who is currently eighth on the all-time wins list, had 171 ties in his career. If all those games had to be decided by a shootout, you could probably say conservatively that 40 per cent of those games would have turned out to be wins. 

With all that said, Quick’s playoff performances with the Los Angeles Kings that ended up in Stanley Cup victories are hard to ignore. During his Conn Smythe run, Quick had a .928 save percentage guiding the Kings to a championship. 

Ultimately, I think Quick should get in pretty easily, but it may take a couple of years after he’s eligible before he gets the call. 

Patrick Kane, Detroit Red Wings

Move over Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane is the new shootout king. 

Kane scored his 53rd shootout goal Tuesday night to power the Detroit Red Wings past the Seattle Kraken and move him ahead of former teammate Jonathan Toews for most all-time.

As gorgeous as that move from Kane was, I’m not sure it even cracks the top five of his shootout goal resume. This is my personal favourite.

Kane has mastered the art of patience on his shootout attempts, slowing down about halfway through and trying to out-wait the goaltender. 

A lot of hockey fans aren’t fond of the shootout and consider it sort of gimmicky, but there’s no denying how important those extra points can be in a playoff race. Now that overtime is three-on-three, more games get decided in overtime, though when it was four-on-four, some teams used to pick up 10 or more extra points in the standings from winning shootouts.

Players like Kane are invaluable in those situations. The Red Wings are actually 3-0 in shootouts this season and thanks to Kane’s efforts against the Kraken this week, Detroit has now won seven straight games. That’s suddenly vaulted the Wings from the Eastern Conference’s basement to a wild card spot. Conversely, the Pittsburgh Penguins are 1-5 in shootouts this season and sit eight points back of the Red Wings. Their playoff chances would be a lot better if they had an extra three or four points from shootout victories. 

There’s likely going to be a team or two that falls just short of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference lamenting the fact that they didn’t win a few more games that went beyond 60 minutes.

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