MLB Mailbag: Bregman, Red Sox, Kelenic, Tigers, Marlins

This week's mailbag gets into Alex Bregman's possible landing spots, Boston's failure to add a right-handed bat, potential contracts for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker, Jarred Kelenic's trade value, the Tigers' relatively quiet offseason, the Marlins' rebuild, and much more.

Mark asks:

Logically, which team makes the most sense to sign Alex Bregman? I see awkward fits in HOU and BOS. And while TOR has a logical fit roster-wise, DET just makes the most sense to me. A need for veteran leadership on a young team, need for a 3B, and room on their payroll. I'm not a DET fan, but an STL fan who wants to find a team for Nolan Arenado, which I doubt happens until Bregman signs! Thanks.

Troy asks:

Big Astros fan here, what is your feeling about where Bregman goes? I'd love to have him back with the team but to me it may not be a good fit anymore with the other moves that have already been made, plus with a win now team such as this I'd rather them take the money they saved trading Pressly and get a true outfielder.

On Tuesday, Astros GM Dana Brown said, "I would mostly say it’s all internal conversations as to what we would like to do in terms of Bregman."  Asked a few days earlier whether the door is shut, Brown hesitated and replied, "I would say it's cracked."  At another point he said it's a "long shot."

On Monday, Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Bregman "maintains interest from five teams and is no closer to a decision now than before Pressly’s departure."  They added, "All winter, sources have indicated Astros owner Jim Crane is unwilling to pay the tax for a second consecutive season."  Estimates have the Astros' CBT payroll at $4.86MM shy of the first tax threshold, or $4.68MM short.

Crucially, the Athletic reporters said the Astros' six-year, $156MM offer to Bregman "remains on the table."  If that's true, then Crane absolutely is willing to go over the tax threshold again, since Bregman could theoretically just accept their offer right now.

It seems fair to guess that the Astros will not be increasing their offer much if at all.  In our early November contract predictions, we gave Bregman the Kris Bryant contract: seven years, $182MM.  Bryant, however, was about nine months younger than Bregman will be on Opening Day this year.  Plus, Bryant had to join a poorly-run, typically non-competitive team to get his maximum contract.

I don't see why Scott Boras wouldn't just accept the Astros' offer.  It's true: if he finds Bregman a bigger offer elsewhere, he wins.  I'm not sure Bregman would be happier; I don't know what's going on in his head.  But accepting $156MM to stay in Houston would hardly be a disappointment, and it'd still be more money than Matt Chapman received on his recent extension.

Dana Brown might have a great poker face, but I saw nothing to indicate he's bluffing and a deal is right around the corner.  On the other hand, if that Astros' offer is indeed on the table, one word from Bregman and the deal could be done.

It's true, the fit is mildly awkward now that the Astros have Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes.  But as MLBTR's Steve Adams has said, it's really not crazy to take one of the game's worst defensive second basemen in Altuve and stick him in left field to make the pieces fit.  Plus, it wouldn't be surprising to see Yordan Alvarez miss a month or age start to catch up with Walker (34 in March) or Altuve (35 in May).  The odds that one of these guys gets hurt are pretty strong.

So I do still like the Astros as the best fit for Bregman, but let's look at the other suitors.

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