Nintendo low-balls its Switch 2 sales estimates, but they’re still huge

Nintendo is predicting that it will sell 15 million Switch 2 consoles in its current financial year — a figure that most analysts agree is too low, but that would still put it among the fastest-selling game consoles of all time.

Nintendo made the forecast in a report to investors covering its previous financial year, ending in March 2025. It also predicted sales of 45 million Switch 2 games, and 4.5 million original Switches — which would bring the older console within spitting distance of the all-time record held by PlayStation 2.

Analysts, including Niko Partners’ Daniel Ahmad, said Nintendo’s forecast was “conservative,” likely due to uncertainty around U.S. trade tariffs. “Nintendo’s number is on the low side. With good reason,” Dr. Serkan Toto of Kantan Games told VGC. “God knows how the tariff situation will evolve even over the next few days, so how is a company supposed to predict sales for an entire year?”

Before the Switch 2’s $449.99 price was announced, and before President Donald Trump’s tariffs came into effect, analysts were predicting sales of 20 million in the console’s first fiscal year. These estimates were buoyed by reports that Nintendo would have an unprecedented inventory of 6 to 8 million consoles available on day one, which would almost certainly lead to a record-breaking launch. Since then, it’s become apparent that Nintendo’s efforts to provide an adequate supply of Switch 2s for launch have fallen short, with the company admitting it won’t be able to meet what it calls an “astonishing” level of demand for the console.

Even if Nintendo does sell “only” 15 million Switch 2s in its first 10 months — the months between its June 5 launch and the end of its fiscal year in March 2026 — this would put it among the most successful console launches ever. The original Switch sold 14.86 million units in a similar period, between its March 3, 2017 launch and the end of the calendar year. Sony reported sales of 13.4 million PlayStation 5s by the end of September 2021, a little over 10 months after it went on sale (and in the face of crippling stock shortages).

It looks like the Switch 2 is going to be a massive hit — tariffs or no tariffs.