Tencent stock forecast 2025-2030: Is the esports titan a buy?

Tencent Holdings, the Chinese technology company, has become a giant within the global esports arena over the past decade.

Its impressive roster of games, including Honor of Kings and PUBG Mobile, has helped push total annual revenues to RMB660.3 billion ($91.9 billion) in 2024. 

But does this make it an attractive investment? How has the Tencent stock price performed over the last few years, and what have been the main drivers?

In our TCEHY stock forecast 2025-2030, we look at the latest Tencent news, analyze its recent results and reveal the views of stock market analysts.

As of April 23, 2025, TCEHY stock is currently rated as a ‘moderate buy,’ according to MarketBeat, with a target price of $88, representing a potential 46.42% upside over the coming year.

However, it’s worth noting that this only represents the views of one Wall Street analyst. The following chart shows the TCEHY outlook of both analysts and algorithmic forecasters.

Before delving deeper into our TCEHY stock forecast, it’s important to know that the company is primarily listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the stock code 0700.HK.

While it doesn’t appear on any US exchanges, investors get exposure to the esports company’s stock via over-the-counter (OTC) markets using the TCEHY ticker. This represents its American Depositary Receipts.  

So, what do analysts think of Tencent’s stock future? 

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, believes Tencent could benefit from the unrest caused by the US administration’s recent policies.

She told eSports Insider: 

“Donald Trump’s tariffs have created a significant amount of anti-American sentiment in certain parts of the world, something companies like Tencent are already looking to optimize.”

Hewson believes the company has been quick to make the most of the situation, and it’s a trend that can’t see stopping anytime soon. 

She added:

How about the longer-term Tencent stock prediction? Are analysts optimistic about the company’s current trajectory, or do they have nagging doubts?

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, believes the company is still very much in a growth phase.

She told Esports Insider: 

“TenCent is positioning itself to be a major player in esports, acquiring stakes in multiple firms involved in this fast-growing industry, from Epic Games, owner of Fortnite, to Riot Games, behind League of Legends.”

Streeter believes this is particularly interesting given the pace at which the sector is likely to develop over the next few years.

“It sees vast potential in the opportunities ahead, at the intersection of gaming and technology, as the use of virtual reality and artificial intelligence increases,” she added.

Ivan Su, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, believes the increase in game license issuance signals a positive outlook for gaming companies in China.

In his latest Tencent stock analysis, he said: 

“More importantly, it suggests that regulators are taking a more supportive stance toward the gaming sector, reducing the likelihood of further regulatory tightening in the near term.”

Within these approvals, Su thinks Tencent’s Honor of Kings World has the most “blockbuster potential” as it benefits from open-world gameplay that supports rapid player adoption.

“We maintain our expectation of a moderately improving regulatory environment in 2025,” he added. “This supports our 2025 double-digit game revenue growth forecast for Tencent and NetEase.”

As far as his Tencent share price forecast is concerned, he has a fair value estimate of 710.00 HKD for the Tencent stock listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the stock code 0700.HK. As the Hong Kong market closed on April 22, 2025, the price stood at 460 HKD.

TCEHY stock year-to-date: +13%

The company’s performance has been quite volatile since the start of 2025. Still, Tencent’s share price has gained around 13% to 460 HKD as the Hong Kong Stock Exchange closed on April 22, 2025.

The rise in TCEHY on the US OTC markets is broadly similar. Year-to-date, the stock is up almost 13% to $60.10 on the same date.

TCEHY stock 1-year performance: +46%

It’s been a good year for the company’s investors, with the Tencent share price having risen over 40% to 460 HKD as the Hong Kong Stock Exchange closed on April 22, 2025.

TCEHY stock price on the US OTC markets has shown a growth of 46%.

TCEHY stock 5-year performance: +13%

However, the longer-term figures are less impressive. Although the 5-year TCEHY stock performance chart still shows 13% growth over the last 5 years, the stock has actually fallen 33% since its peak in early 2021, when it was trading around $90.

A combination of the regulatory crackdown on the technology sector, gaming industry restrictions, and a general economic slowdown has been blamed for the drop. 

Currently, the Tencent market cap stands at $547.28 billion, making it the 16th largest company in the world and the largest in China.

It’s also the second biggest player in the international video games market behind US giant Microsoft, but leads the way in the global esports sector.

According to the latest Tencent earnings, total revenues rose 11% to RMB172.4 billion ($24 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the company’s latest results.

Meanwhile, profit attributable to equity holders of the company came in at RMB55.3 billion for the quarter, which represented a year-over-year increase of 30%.

As far as the full year 2024 was concerned, Tencent reported total revenues of RMB660.3 billion ($91.9 billion). This was 8% higher than the previous 12 months.

In a statement, Ma Huateng, Tencent’s chairman and chief executive officer, attributed the performance to factors such as AI-powered enhancements to its advertising platform, higher engagement in Video Accounts, and growth in its evergreen games.

“We have reorganized our AI teams to sharpen focus on both fast product innovation and deep model research, increased our AI-related capital expenditures, and increased our R&D and marketing efforts for our AI-native products,” he said.

Ma is optimistic about the outlook. “We believe these stepped-up investments will generate ongoing returns via uplifting productivity in our advertising business and longevity of our games, as well as longer-term value from accelerated consumer usage of our AI applications and enterprise adoption of our AI services,” he added.

Tencent Esports, which was established in December 2016, is the company’s brand and event operator that has run tournaments in more than 90 countries.

It replaced Tencent Games Arena (TGA), which was the company’s previous attempt at promoting competitive gaming in China that was set up in 2010.

TGA was restructured into Tencent Esports as part of an enhanced focus on the growing Esports sector and the phenomenal global interest in gaming.

Currently, it’s involved in the management of several influential gaming leagues in China. They include the League of Legends Pro League.

While the company doesn’t publish standalone results for Tencent Esports, its operations are a significant part of Tencent Games.

The company recently announced that revenues for International Games hit RMB16 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, which represented a 15% year-on-year increase.

This was driven by robust performances from Brawl Stars and PUBG MOBILE, alongside the early access release of Path of Exile 2.

Meanwhile, revenues for Domestic Games increased 23% year-on-year to RMB33.2 billion, benefiting from a number of factors.

These included a low base in the prior year’s period; growth in revenue from major games such as Honor of Kings, Peacekeeper Elite, and VALORANT; and contributions from recently released games DnF Mobile and Delta Force. 

There’s no doubt that Tencent is a major player in the world of esports and electronic gaming and analysts believe it stands to benefit from this sector’s forecast growth.

The most bullish investors cite products being in the early stages of monetization and the company’s deep integration into Chinese daily life as reasons for optimism.

They also argue that rising compliance costs are likely to create substantial barriers to entry for players in the Chinese internet industry, which may reduce the competitive pressures it faces. 

However, the more pessimistic warn that there’s always a risk that the Chinese government may want more control over Tencent’s business interests.

Its future success will depend on its ability to stay ahead of rivals in a fiercely competitive industry, particularly highly competitive foreign internet service providers.

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